Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Notes.....

Nobody wants to take a loss, and as human-nature you won't either. I like to attach to myself to the work I do not to the results.

***Project trend lines on your own.
***Check 4H charts for all currecys
***Look at DJI & /DX for Resistance / Support and or Trend
***Look for Shapes and Possible Shapes in the making

This market if focused on the wrong things can be demoralizing.

Monday 8.13.12
Went in AUD/USD last night (Sunday night). This morning I was up about 11 pips then the 7am candle became a bearish opposite of shooting start (instead of the star being a cross on the top of candle it was at the bottom and closed in the red, so long wick with price closing at the bottom where it opened for that hour) then the AUD fell till present (923am). I am currently -22 pips.

***ABC patterns: low to hi when measured r corrective where prices will go back to original trend.


Friday 8.17.12
AUD/USD - lost 126 pips. I like to learn from this failed trade: Broke out of wedge yesterday but like most times that I have seen when something breaks out of the wedge one way usually it is a fake and goes the other way, on this trade I could have raised my SL (would've still lost but lesser pips). Could have also noticed the long down candle that set in 2100-0100 (4hr chart) usually these long candles continue the trend if they aren't reversed on the next candle. Before this candle was also a ABC corrective pattern going opposite of this weeks trend.

I have desire for being highly successful in this market.

Good Things about this Succeeding in this:
This is a business in which I can grow forever, their are no limits here. Usually no one can hold you back, it is kind of like golf and you compete with yourself above all.
This business is one I can do remotely from anywhere, whether I decide to travel to Europe or into different cities in America I can run this business from anywhere.
I create my own pay check.
I enjoy doing this business as most people I know don't understand this but all are invested in it one way or another and the kids coming next will also be.
I can work this business on different time zones; USA, London, Tokyo, Australian.
This is something I have been around most of my last 10 years.
I love "Business" and this is the top of the business world.
I can open this business and make money anywhere in the world and also spend time learning that countries business ways and possibly introduce our ways.
This is a big challenge, no one I know personally has been able to consistently make profitable trades yet but they all enjoy talking about the market and what it would feel like to make it in this business.
I am really good with numbers and psychology which is helpful in this market, its not the only thing but its like being a tall person in a sales job or good with the tongue.
I will be able to give back with this business a lot more than anything else I have done yet. Because I have heard everyone doing trades on their own and they may want my advice or counsel once my success speaks for itself.
I like to profit in this market because not only will it enable me to buy things I need (clothes, shoes, food, office equipment, kids stuff) but also pay rent which provides a home for my family and a car that they can drive.
With money I can be the giving and passing along part of myself.


Tuesday 8.21.12
AUD/USD - Shorted SL 28pips. I put this trade on after a Doji on a 4hr candle. I also checked twitter and searched for "AUD/USD" to see what others are saying. This pair is on a downtrend on a 4hr chart (lower hi & lows). My profit Tgt or SL being brought to Breakeven is the last daily support line which is close to the 50% fib from the current run up. I also looked at the Time Zone to see which zone did this run up happen on and it seems as Tokyo shorted last Thursday and this time they bought it all back and ran it up so to me it seems that the current trend (down) is still intact. (330pm) Trade went exactly to the point I Tgt'd so now my SL is +12 pips. ***+12 pips, stopped out*** (946pm) This trade continues to make pips but I am Stopped out since 330pm.

Wednesday 8.22.12
E/USD - needs to break 2440 to go short

Thursday 8.23.12
AUD/USD - Shorted with SL 24pips. I didn't feel like writing this down when I took on the trade. When I came back home I checked on the trade and it was stopped out. My SL was 1-2pips from where it reversed and the pair went down (profitable if I were still in the trade). I keep seeing that if I should take on a trade then my SL should always be over the last candle on a 4hr chart (at least in the morning because markets always volatile in the morning).

***Make Flag, Triangle, Wedge trend line connecting to last morning instead of today that way you can see if a breakout is already under way, its like doing yesterdays TA today and seeing something you would if you were watching since yesterday.***

Sunday 8.26.12 - 940pm
EUR/USD - Short w/ SL 47 pips which is above the last 4hr candle and above the 7/14 MA (which have a cross on the last candle 4hr chart. The price is at the top of a rising wedge. The last 1hr candle is engulfing bearish candle. (brought SL to +2 and stopped out, good trade as I didn't loose anything)

Tuesday 8.28.12 - 1030pm (waited till morning)
NZD/USD Short SL = -19pips
Taking the trade short. Measured how much higher than the MA does it go and its only 15pip avg so that is where my SL is. This trade is because the SL (risk) is low. My SL is above the 200MA on the 4hr, the SL is also above the 7MA but not the 14MA, and most important to me its above the Daily support line drawn that dates way back. I see a potential ABC pattern (but this is not my current estimate because the SL can be taken out even if this ABC plays out). The long term daily trend line is where the price is now, which before I would have traded for it to bounce here but this time I will trade that it will break this and go further down. (8am) Checking on trade potential again. It fell overnight and if I would have shorted it it would have been +12pips right now. (840am) Now if the trade was put on last night I would have been -5pips as of this minute. Shorted at 858am with 19pip SL around the same place as the original SL. (1035pm) Moved SL to +5pips, its night time and I will not be able to watch the trades and if it will go up over-night I want out with a profit. The SL is placed above the top-channel trend line. SL is also above earlier placed price alert that was a alert set to see if I will sell here if it came up this high. Wednesday (1025am) Moved alert to last support new resistance on 1hr chart. Moved SL to last alert now +14pips (and currently the pair is up +58pips). Drew a bright green line at the break of the bottom-channel line for analysis to get out if it hits this line and doesn't reverse. EXIT STR. (1158am) Since it has falling much and I feel it could rise back up the strategy to get out is to look at the RSI and compare it to history where the 50 RSI is from where you would measure to where it is now (comparing the current with the historic data) and on this one it looks like that if the price is going to rise then it will peak above the last candle and this is where I should place my new SL (just above the last hourly candle this makes me stay in the trend incase it goes further down and takes me out without loosing much left of the table). I have just moved the SL to +40pips now, just above .8000 (whole number). (1218pm) SL adjusted to above 11am candle, now SL +49pips. (101pm) Adjusted SL to just above 12pm candle now SL +58pips.

Look for:
Low SL on 4hr.
e.g Measured by how much the price went above the 7&14MA's the last few times of less than X amount of pips (pretty average).
e.g Price is in a clear down-trend.
e.g. SL is also above another resistance, 200MA
SL above or below last 4hr candle.
Go against what you would have done before because you might have been thinking like an Average trader.
Wait a while for your trade to play out, it will reverse and give you another chance be patient.
Look for top or bottom of channels for reversals.
Use RSI to get out of the trade.


Tuesday 8.28.12 - 1027pm
EUR/USD - Daily trend line 97pips away, may run up into resistance by morning could be a good short.

FOR Sunday night 9.2.12
NZD/USD - Long-term daily trend broken and retested Friday.

Tuesday 9.4.12 - 805pm
NZD/USD - SL 16pips. Took this trade on the Hourly Support Resistance 20pips up and down strategy. I made support and resistance line on the 5M (5-6pm) because if I were watching the market then then right at this candle is where this trade would have started. My SL is above the 200 on 5m chart and it is well above the last 3 highs. Position closed with -17.6pips at 1226am, which was the top before it reversed and hit my target price alert (405am).

Wednesday - 9.5.12 - 826am
EUR/USD - Went long at 826am on break of Hourly S/R and full candle after. The pair has shot up and then it retraced to 50 Fib. I checked 11 pairs and found this to be the best breakout. (904am) SL at breakeven. Out with 1.8pips @ 942am. What I learned from this is not to be greedy for more but take the 20pips target you were looking for.

Wednesday - 9.5.12 - 959am
EUR/GBP  Long - SL at -16pips. Went in since the price was exactly at where it would have been if I went in on a full candle on the 7-8am Hourly S/R breach Strategy. I checked Fib and it is at 76% and the SL is under the last support on hourly chart. This time I have a Limit at 20 pips. I also looked at the Hourly peaks on which T zones and it looks like this pair peaks around 11am which leaves me an hour. I also looked at the hourly  candles and after a full bullish candle it is common to have slightly bullish candle that looks bearish (off its peak hugely but still closes in the green). (229pm) I am currently down -1.9pips, the pair has been sideways, no new highs no new lows. (1044pm) Moved SL to breakeven because tonight it could reverse still have my 20pip Tgt intact.

Thursday 9.6.12 - 911pm
EUR/USD - Looks like this one can run up to

Friday 9.7.12
EUR/USD - Looked at pair to see if reverse can happen, and I looked at the RSI and traced it back to see when it hit this high before and it was everytime the pair went into this resistance begining 8.27.11 which it has breached above. And everytime the RSI reversed but not the price (instead it made divergence, price rising while RSI making lower highs). If the price drops below the 10-11am S/R I think a good short for opening on Sunday evening may be good.

Sunday 9.9.12 - 559pm
AUD/USD Is higher than ever above the 7/14MA on 4Hr since this downtrend started. And on the 4Hr its approaching the 200MA.On 1hr price at 50 Fib since last correction.

Monday 9.10.12 - 916am
NZD/USD - Shorted with -10pips SL and 20pip Tgt. using the S/R made yesterday (Sunday). The /DX is slowly tredning upwards, I predict it will retrace to 50Fib and the Trend line that is there (on 1hr). Looked at RSI and it is above 50 and it should hit 50 before reversing. SL is above last support and may test this as resistance, could have waited for this and then shorted. My weakness of missing out might be in this trade already and that is why I prolly took it, but I accept this so I can do better. (933am) stopped out with -12.1pips.

Monday 9.10.12 - 1149am
EUR/USD Went long with -8pips SL. Breached with full candle when retracing. Price at 50Fib from last run-up. SL is low and below last resistance. I see a rounding bottom and this breakout is resistance since yesterday (Sunday 1020pm). (1241pm) Took 10.5pip loss.

Monday 9.10.12 - 1053pm
AUD/USD - SL at -12pips. Went in long on the simple strategy of a break above the Resistance. I used this strategy because AUD/USD has most pip success when I ran the Report. (1120pm) stopped out with -11.5pips.

Tuesday 9.11.12 - 833am
AUD/USD - went long on 6-7am breach with -15pips SL. Target hit at 858am. (Retraced to .618 and went to 1.618)

Tuesday 9.11.12 -947am
Waiting for AUD/USD to break above 8-9am S/R. This pair can run up all the way to next 4hr resistance drawn in orange coming from the bottom left. The pair is breaking out of a flag pattern and will run for the next few days or week, mid-term trade. On 4hr pair is running up against 200MA.

Wednesday 9.12.12 - 1003am
USD/JPY - waiting for breach of 8-9am S/R. Drawn 5m trend line (upwards) also waiting on its breach. Can go in short if S/R and trend line breached.

Wednesday 9.12.12 - 1011am
AUD/USD - A good long position, after retracement today. Price is above 200MA. Look for price to retrace down to Daily support also and then its a good buy.


Wednesday 9.12.12 - 1042am
USD/CAD Looks like a good Long. Breaking out of down trend line. Bounced of the daily support this monring. Last 2 4hr candles bullish. /DX has a shooting star at the bottom (6am candle). Went in on the end of the 1040am canle with SL below the low of the last candle (-9pips). I might only gain 15pips on this if the target hits because its already run up 5pips (total of 20pips). Also, this pair has been sold off a lot.(224pm) At 138pm I was stopped out with -8.4pips. I think the bad part on this trade was that I went in too late, 1042am is late because most times the markets calm down and are not volatile, and I have been up since 545am!!.

Thursday 9.13.12 - 637am
AUD/USD - I have been watching this yesterday and its retraced to the trend line where I was predicting it would bounce from, now I watch it for breach on 5m S/R. The price is also at the 200MA, which is even more confirmation that it could bounce. But on the 1hr the pair has made a lower high and lower low. Also look out for the daily trend lines, price has retraced to last diagnal trend line and could become resistance and price is also making lower lows and lower highs.

Thursday 9.13.12 - 725am
EUR/USD 1.3000 is 100pips away and that might be a good Tgt and great phsychological level.


Thursday 9.13.12 - 820am
USD/JPY went short with SL at 9pips (above the last few very bearish candles). I went into this trade simply on breach of S/R on 5m (5-6am) and the fact that its trending down and earlier it made a new low. My 1st tgt is 20pips but I have not put in a limit order yet as I will be watching it closely to get more out of it if I can, I will at the very least move my SL to a few pips in the + once the 20pip tgt is hit. After the first retracement since I went in I lower my SL to -6pips (just above that retracements high). (849am) Really long bearish candle and I bought my SL to + (right above this long bearish candle). (903am) Stopped out with +2pips.


Thursday 9.13.12 - 851amAUD/USD went long with SL at 6 pips below the last pull back which happened after it broke S/R on 5m at 810am. This trade is put on on breach of S/R on 5m of 4-5am candles. This is my second trade that is open, the first (above) is already in profit and SL is in the profit area so I won't loose there so now the risk is all here. (907am) Stopped out with -8.7pips.

Lost writing on a couple of trades

Friday 9.14.12 - 927am
GBP/USD went long after retracement from morning back down to 1-2am Resistance and once it broke out again I went long and once it hit the 20pips I brought my SL to breakeven where I should have taken profits but got stopped out with +1.3pips.

Friday 9.14.12 - 1104am
GBP/USD went short on 5m when it ran into resistance on top of rising channel. I went in on the doji with the SL right above the doji candle, -6pips. (1123am) Stopped out with -8.8pips.

Saturday 9.15.12 - 136pm
Why do I want to trade and be successful at Forex?
I like forex trading because its most challenging business I have ever done. I have done many business (retail, TCBY, hair stylist, Hotel, Computers, Real-Estate and more) and nothing was this challenging and none of those excited me much if I looked into the future and saw myself doing this 10 years from then or as an old man. I see myself doing trading business and managing money for more than myself, wealthy powerful clients but also family because many people are tied to the market one way or another. I like helping people, its in my nature and no matter what I have went thru in life I have always still helped people. I like my trading forex business because I set my time on which time-zones to trade (Aussie 8pm, Tokyo 9pm, London 3am, USA 8am) and this gives me freedom and a chance to use my night-owl productivity. I like that I can make money out of numbers, which I am great at and it feels like math and I am good at math.

What are my goals?

Why did I start this trading business?

What changes do I need to make to my current situation to achieve my goals?

Monday 9.17.12 - 944am
USD/JPY - This has rallied all the way to the top of a sloping trend line dating back from 3.21.12 (6 months). This can be a good short or long depending on candles developed and other technicals.

Tuesday 9.18.12 - 1114am
GBP/USD went long due to breach, its Tuesday and its that time that markets rev up for the week. Also, good to go long since the trend is upwards (trend is ur friend). Stopped out 1215pm with -17.5pip loss.





No comments:

Post a Comment